defeat in the party vote.[6] Tactical voting was expected to play a major role in the 2019 General Election, with a YouGov poll suggesting that 19% of voters would be doing so tactically. 49% of tactical voters said they would do so in the hope of stopping a party whose views they opposed.[7] Canada In the 1999 Ontario provincial election, strategic voting was widely encouraged by opponents of the Progressive Conservative government of Mike Harris. This failed to unseat Harris, and succeeded only in suppressing the Ontario New Democratic Party vote to a historic low. In the 2004 federal election and to a lesser extent in the 2006 election, strategic voting was a concern for the federal New Democratic Party (NDP). In the 2004 election, the governing Liberal Party was able to convince many New Democratic voters to vote Liberal[citation needed] in order to avoid a Conservative government. In the 2006 elections, the Liberal Party attempted the same strategy, with Prime Minister Paul Martin asking New Democrats and Greens to vote for the Liberal Party in order to prevent a Conservative win. The New Democratic Party leader Jack Layton would respond by asking voters to "lend" their votes to his party, suggesting that the Liberal Party would be bound to lose the election regardless of strategic voting. During the 2015 federal election, strategic voting was primarily against the Conservative government of Stephen Harper which had benefited from vote splitting among centrist and left-leaning parties in the 2011 election.[8][9] Following the landslide victory of the Liberals led by Justin Trudeau over Harper's Conservatives, observers noted that the increase in support for the Liberals at the expense of the NDP and Green Party was partially due to strategic voting for Liberal candidates.[10] Hong Kong In Hong Kong, with its party-list proportional representation using largest remainder method with the Hare quota, voters supporting candidates of the pro-democracy camp will organise to cast their votes to different tickets, so as to avoid votes being concentrated on one or a few candidates and wasted.[11] In 2016 Hong Kong Legislative Election, the practices of tactical voting were expanded by Benny Tai's Project ThunderGo. The Anti-establishment camp gained 29 seats, which was a historical record. Spain In the 2016 General Election in Spain, the incentives for voting tactically were much larger than usual, following the rise of the Podemos and Ciudadanos following the economic crisis and election in 2015.[12] The tactical voters were aided by Spain's d'hondt electoral system[13][circular reference] and were successfully able to influence the outcome of the election, despite a record low turnout of 66.5%. Other countries Stenciling on a Parisian sidewalk ahead of the first round of the 2017 French presidential election invoking "votez utile" (tactical voting) as a reason for voters to vote for François Fillon instead of Emmanuel Macron Puerto Rico's 2004 elections were affected by tactical voting. The New Progressive Party's candidate was unpopular, except among the pro-statehood Right, because of large corruption schemes and privatization of public corporations. To prevent him from winning, other factions supported the Partido Popular Democratico's candidate. The elections were close; statehood advocates won a seat in the U.S. house of representatives and majorities in both legislative branches, but lost governance to Anibal Acevedo Vila. (In Puerto Rico you have the chance to vote by party or by candidate. Separatists voted under their ideology, but for the center party's candidate. This caused major turmoil.) After a recount and a trial, Anibal Acevedo Vila was certified as governor of the commonwealth of Puerto Rico. In 2011 Slovenian parliamentary election, 30% of voters voted tactically. Public polls predicted easy win for Janez Janša, the candidate of the Slovenian Democratic Party, however his opponent Zoran Jankovic, the candidate of Positive Slovenia won. According to prominent Slovenian public opinion researchers, such proportions of tactical voting were not recorded anywhere else before.[14] In Hungary, during the 2018 Hungarian parliamentary election, several websites such as taktikaiszavazas.hu[15] (meaning "tactical voting") promoted the idea to vote for opposition candidates with the highest probability of winning a given seat. This behavior was adopted by about a quarter of opposition voters resulting in a total of 498000 extra votes gained by opposition parties and a total of 14 extra single seats taken by several parties and independent candidates. Rational voter model Academic analysis of tactical voting is based on the rational voter model, derived from rational choice theory. In this model, voters are short-term instrumentally rational. That is, voters are only voting in order to make an impact on one election at a time (not, say, to build the political party for next election); voters have a set of sincere preferences, or utility rankings, by which to rate candidates; voters have some knowledge of each other's preferences; and voters understand how best to use tactical voting to their advantage. The extent to which this model resembles real-life elections is the subject of considerable academic debate. Myerson–Weber strategy An example of a rational voter strategy is described by Myerson and Weber.[16] The strategy is broadly applicable to a number of single-winner voting methods that are additive point methods, such as Plurality, Borda, Approval, and Range. The strategy is optimal in the sense that the strategy will maximize the voter's expected utility when the number of voters is sufficiently large. This rational voter model assumes that the voter's utility of the election result is dependent only on which candidate wins and not on any other aspect of the election, for example showing support for a losing candidate in the vote tallies. The model also assumes the voter chooses how to vote individually and not in collaboration with other voters. Given a set of k candidates and a voter let: vi = the number of points to be voted for candidate i ui = the voter's gain in utility if candidate i wins the election pij = the (voter's perceived) pivot probability that candidates i and j will be tied for the most total points to win the election. Then the voter's prospective rating for a candidate i is defined as: {\displaystyle R_{i}=\sum _{j\neq i}\;p_{ij}\cdot (u_{i}-u_{j})\,}R_i = \sum_{j \neq i} \; p_{ij} \cdot (u_i - u_j)\, The gain in expected utility for a given vote is given by: {\displaystyle G(p,v,u)=\sum _{i=1}^{k}\;v_{i}\cdot R_{i}\,}G(p,v,u) = \sum_{i=1}^k \; v_i \cdot R_i\, The gain in expected utility can be maximized by choosing a vote with suitable values of vi, depending on the voting method and the voter's prospective ratings for each candidate. For specific voting methods, the gain can be maximized using the following rules: Plurality: Vote for the candidate with the highest prospective rating. This is to be distinguished from choosing the best of the frontrunners, which is a common but imprecise plurality tactic. The highest prospective rating can in fact belong to a weak candidate, even the weakest. Borda: Rank the candidates in decreasing order of prospective rating. Approval: Vote for all candidates that have a positive prospective rating; do not vote for any candidates that have a negative prospective rating. Range: Vote the maximum points for all candidates that have a positive prospective rating; vote the minimum allowed value for all candidates that have a negative prospective rating; vote any number of points for a candidate with a prospective rating of zero. An important special case occurs when the voter has no information about how other voters will vote. This is sometimes referred to as the zero


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elena-berkova elena-maria-ricci eleonore-melzer elisabeth-bure elis-black elise elise-di-medici elle-devyne elle-rio elodie-delage elsa-maroussia elza-brown emili-doll emily-evermoore emily-george emily-jewel emmanuelle-pareze envy-mi erica-boyer erica-eaton erica-havens erica-idol erica-lauren erika-bella erika-cool erika-heaven erika-lockett esme-monroe eva-allen eva-angel eva-dionisio eva-gross eva-kleber eva-lux eva-uettori eve-laurence evelyne-lang evie-delatosso fabiana-venturi faith-stevens fallon fanny-garreau fanny-steel faye-runaway flame flick-shagwell flore-soller flower france-lomay france-quenie francoise frankie-leigh gabriella gabriella-mirelba gabriella-vincze gail-force gail-palmer gail-sterling georgette-saunders georgia-peach georgina-spelvin gia-givanna gianna-lynn gili-sky gina-carrera gina-gianetti gina-janssen gina-lee gina-martell gina-valentino ginger-jay ginger-lee ginger-lynn ginny-noack giovanna gisela-schwarz giselle-monet gladys-laroche gloria-leonard gloria-todd golden-jade greta-carlson greta-milos guia-lauri-filzi gwenda-farnel hare-krane harley-raine hayley-jade hazel-young heather-deeley heather-ellis heather-hart heather-lere heather-lyn heather-manfield heather-thomas heather-torrance heather-wayne heather-young helen-madigan helen-thomas helga-sven helga-wild hillary-summers holly-hollywood holly-joy holly-page holly-ryder honey-winter hottie-hollie hyapatia-lee ida-fabry ildiko-smits illana-moor ines-ridere ingrid-choray isabella-dior isabella-soprano isabelle-allay isabelle-brell isabelle-marchall isobel-wren iveta ivette-blanche jackie-right jacqueline-lorians jacy-allen jada-stevens jade-east jade-hsu jade-marcela jade-summers jade-wong jahn-gold jamie-brooks jamie-james jamie-summers jana-irrova jana-mrazkova jane-baker jane-darling jane-iwanoff jane-lindsay jane-lixx janet-jacme janey-robbins jasmine-delatori jayden-simone jaylyn-rose jayna-woods jazella-moore jazmin-luna-gold jean-afrique jeanette-littledove 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pascale-vital pat-manning pat-rhea patricia-dale patricia-diamond patricia-kennedy patricia-rhomberg patrizia-predan patti-cakes patti-petite paula-brasile paula-harlow paula-morton paula-price paula-winters pauline-teutscher penelope-pumpkins penelope-valentin petra-hermanova petra-lamas peyton-lafferty phaedra-grant pia-snow piper-fawn pipi-anderson porsche-lynn porsha-carrera precious-silver priscillia-lenn purple-passion queeny-love rachel-ashley rachel-love rachel-luv rachel-roxxx rachel-ryan rachel-ryder racquel-darrian rane-revere raven reagan-maddux rebecca-bardoux regan-anthony regine-bardot regula-mertens reina-leone reka-gabor renae-cruz renee-foxx renee-lovins renee-morgan renee-perez renee-summers renee-tiffany rhonda-jo-petty rikki-blake riley-ray rio-mariah rita-ricardo roberta-gemma roberta-pedon robin-byrd robin-cannes robin-everett robin-sane rochell-starr rosa-lee-kimball rosemarie roxanne-blaze roxanne-hall roxanne-rollan ruby-richards sabina-k sabre 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shyla-foxxx shy-love sierra-sinn sierra-skye sigrun-theil silver-starr silvia-bella silvia-saint silvie-de-lux silvy-taylor simone-west sindee-coxx sindy-lange sindy-shy siobhan-hunter skylar-knight skylar-price skyler-dupree smokie-flame smoking-mary-jane solange-shannon sonya-summers sophia-santi sophie-call sophie-duflot sophie-evans sophie-guers stacey-donovan stacy-lords stacy-moran stacy-nichols stacy-silver stacy-thorn starla-fox starr-wood stefania-bruni stella-virgin stephanie-duvalle stephanie-rage stephanie-renee stevie-taylor summer-knight summer-rose sunny-day sunset-thomas sunshine-seiber susan-hart susanne-brend susan-nero susi-hotkiss suzanne-mcbain suzan-nielsen suzie-bartlett suzie-carina suzi-sparks sweet-nice sweety-pie sybille-rossani sylvia-benedict sylvia-bourdon sylvia-brand sylvia-engelmann syreeta-taylor syren-de-mer syvette szabina-black szilvia-lauren tai-ellis taija-rae taisa-banx talia-james tamara-lee tamara-longley tamara-n-joy tamara-west tami-white tammy tammy-lee tammy-reynolds tania-lorenzo tantala-ray tanya-danielle tanya-fox tanya-foxx tanya-lawson tanya-valis tara-aire tasha-voux tatjana-belousova tatjana-skomorokhova tawnee-lee tawny-pearl tayla-rox taylor-wane teddi-austin teddi-barrett tera-bond tera-heart tera-joy teresa-may teresa-orlowski teri-diver teri-weigel terri-dolan terri-hall tess-ferre tess-newheart thais-vieira tia-cherry tianna tiara tiffany-blake tiffany-clark tiffany-duponte tiffany-rayne tiffany-rousso tiffany-storm tiffany-towers tiffany-tyler tiger-lily tigr timea-vagvoelgyi tina-blair tina-burner tina-evil tina-gabriel tina-loren tina-marie tina-russell tish-ambrose tommi-rose tonisha-mills topsy-curvey tori-secrets tori-sinclair tori-welles tracey-adams traci-lords traci-topps traci-winn tracy-duzit tracy-love tracy-williams tricia-devereaux tricia-yen trinity-loren trisha-rey trista-post trixie-tyler ultramax ursula-gaussmann ursula-moore uschi-karnat valentina valerie-leveau valery-hilton vanessa-chase vanessa-del-rio vanessa-michaels vanessa-ozdanic vanilla-deville velvet-summers veri-knotty veronica-dol veronica-hart veronica-hill veronica-rayne veronica-sage veronika-vanoza via-paxton vicky-lindsay vicky-vicci victoria-evans victoria-gold victoria-knight victoria-luna victoria-paris victoria-slick victoria-zdrok viper virginie-caprice vivian-valentine vivien-martines wendi-white wendy-divine whitney-banks whitney-fears whitney-wonders wonder-tracey wow-nikki xanthia-berstein yasmine-fitzgerald yelena-shieffer yvonne-green zara-whites zsanett-egerhazi zuzie-boobies





information strategy. In this special case, the pij pivot probabilities are all equal and the rules for the specific voting methods become: Plurality: Vote for the most preferred (highest utility) candidate. This is the sincere plurality vote. Borda: Rank the candidates in decreasing order preference (decreasing order of utility). This is the sincere ranking of the candidates. Approval: Calculate the average utility of all candidates. Vote for all candidates that have a higher-than-average utility; do not vote for any candidates that have a lower-than-average utility. Range: Calculate the average utility of all candidates. Vote the maximum points for all candidates that have a higher-than-average utility; vote the minimum points for all candidates that have a lower-than-average utility; vote any value for a candidate with a utility equal to the average. Myerson and Weber also describe voting equilibria that require all voters use the optimal strategy and all voters share a common set of pij pivot probabilities. Because of these additional requirements, such equilibria may in practice be less widely applicable than the strategies. Pre-election influence Because tactical voting relies heavily on voters' perception of how other voters intend to vote, campaigns in electoral methods that promote compromise frequently focus on affecting voter's perception of campaign viability. Most campaigns craft refined media strategies to shape the way voters see their candidacy. During this phase, there can be an analogous effect where campaign donors and activists may decide whether or not to support candidates tactically with their money and labor. In rolling elections, or runoff votes, where some voters have information about previous voters' preferences (e.g. presidential primaries in the United States, French presidential elections), candidates put disproportionate resources into competing strongly in the first few stages, because those stages affect the reaction of later stages. Views on tactical voting This section possibly contains original research. Please improve it by verifying the claims made and adding inline citations. Statements consisting only of original research should be removed. (May 2011) (Learn how and when to remove this template message) Some people view tactical voting as providing misleading information. In this view, a ballot paper is asking the question "which of these candidates is the best?". This means that if one votes for a candidate who one does not believe is the best, then one is lying. British Labour Party politician Anne Begg said of tactical voting: "Tactical voting is fine in theory and as an intellectual discussion in the drawing room or living rooms around the country, but when you actually get to polling day and you have to vote against your principles, then it is much harder to do."[17] Tactical voting is commonly regarded[by whom?] as a problem, since it makes the actual ballot into a nontrivial game, where voters react and counter-react to what they expect other voters' strategies to be. A game such as this might even result in a worse alternative being chosen, because most of the voters used it as a strategic tool. However the existence of limited tactical voting can be thought to increase the quality of the candidates elected because it takes into account not just the "ranking" of the candidates but also the utilities.[citation needed] Arrow's impossibility theorem and the Gibbard–Satterthwaite theorem prove that any useful single-winner voting method based on preference ranking is prone to some kind of manipulation. However, some[who?] use game theory to search for some kind of "minimally manipulatable" (incentive compatibility) voting schemes. Game theory can also be used to analyze the pros and cons of different methods. For instance, under purely honest voting, Condorcet method-like methods tend to settle on compromise candidates, while Instant-Runoff Voting favors those candidates which have strong core support - who may often be more extremist.[citation needed] An electorate using one of these two methods but which (in the general or the specific case) preferred the characteristics of the other method could consciously use strategy to achieve a result more characteristic of the other method. Under Condorcet, they may be able to win by "burying" the compromise candidate (although this risks throwing the election to the opposing extreme); while under IRV, they could always "compromise". It could be argued that in this case the option to vote tactically or not actually helps the electorate express its will, not only on which candidate is better, but on whether compromise is desirable.[citation needed] (This never applies to "sneakier" tactics such as push-over.) Tactical voting greatly complicates the comparative analysis of voting methods. If tactical voting were to become significant, the perceived "advantages" of a given voting method (that is, tending towards compromise or favoring core support) could turn into disadvantages - and, more surprisingly, vice versa.[citation needed] Influence of voting method Tactical voting is highly dependent on the voting method being used. A tactical vote which improves a voter's satisfaction under one method could make no change or lead to a less-satisfying result under another method. Moreover, although by the Gibbard–Satterthwaite theorem no deterministic single-winner voting method is immune to tactical voting in all cases, some methods' results are more resistant to tactical voting than others'. M. Badinski and R. Laraki, the inventors of the majority judgment method, performed an initial investigation of this question using a set of Monte Carlo simulated elections based on the results from a poll of the 2007 French presidential election which they had carried out using rated ballots. Comparing range voting, Borda count, plurality voting, approval voting with two different absolute approval thresholds, Condorcet voting, and majority judgment, they found that range voting had the highest (worst) strategic vulnerability, while their own method majority judgment had the lowest (best).[18] Further investigation would be needed to be sure that this result remained true with different sets of candidates. In particular methods Plurality voting See also: Plurality voting § Tactical voting Tactical voting by compromising is exceedingly common in plurality elections. The most typical tactic is to assess which two candidates are frontrunners (most likely to win) and to vote for the preferred one of those two, even if a third candidate is





preferred over both. Duverger's law argues that this kind of tactical voting, along with the spoiler effect which can arise when such tactics are not used, will be so common that any method based on plurality will eventually result in two-party domination. Although this "law" is just an empirical observation rather than a mathematical certainty, it is generally supported by the evidence.[citation needed] Due to the especially deep impact of tactical voting in such a method, some argue that systems with three or more strong or persistent parties become in effect forms of disapproval voting, where the expression of disapproval in order to keep an opponent out of office overwhelms the expression of approval to elect a desirable candidate. Party-list proportional representation The presence of an electoral threshold (typically at around 5% or 4%) can lead to voters voting tactically for a different party to their preferred political party (which may be more hardline or more moderate) in order to ensure that the party passes the threshold. An alliance of parties can fail to win a majority despite outpolling their rivals if one party in the alliance falls beneath the threshold. An example of this is the 2009 Norwegian election in which the right-wing opposition parties won more votes between them than the parties in the governing coalition, but the narrow failure of the Liberal Party to cross the 4% threshold led to the governing coalition winning a majority. This effect has sometimes been nicknamed "Comrade 4%" in Sweden, where the electoral threshold is 4%, particularly when referring to supporters of the Social Democrats who vote tactically for the more hardline Left Party.[19][20] In the 2013 German federal election, the Free Democratic Party got only 4.8% of the votes so did not meet the 5% threshold. The party did not win any directly elected seats, so for the first time since 1949 was not represented in the Bundestag. Hence their ally the Christian Democratic Union had to form a grand coalition with the Social Democratic Party. In several recent elections in New Zealand the National Party has suggested that National supporters in certain electorates should vote for minor parties or candidates who can win an electorate seat and would support a National government. This culminated in the Tea tape scandal when a meeting in the Epsom electorate in 2011 was taped. The meeting was to encourage National voters in the electorate to vote "strategically" for the ACT candidate; and it was suggested that Labour Party voters in the electorate should vote "strategically" for the National candidate as the Labour candidate could not win the seat but a National win in the seat would deprive National of an ally. The two major parties National and Labour always top up their electorate MPs with list MPs, so a National win in the seat would not increase the number of National MPs. Even in countries with a low threshold such as the Netherlands, tactical voting can still happen for other reasons. In the campaign for the 2012 Dutch election, the Socialist Party had enjoyed good poll ratings, but many voters who preferred the Socialists voted instead for the more centrist Labour Party out of fear that a strong showing from the Socialists would lead to political deadlock. It was also suggested that a symmetrical effect on the right caused the Party for Freedom to lose support to the more centrist VVD[21] In elections which there are many party lists competing with only a few seats, such as Hong Kong Legislative Council election, the outcome will tend to be similar to that of single non-transferable vote (SNTV): only the first candidate in a list will win. In such elections parties will split the candidates into multiple lists, since competing using "remainder" votes in both lists is easier than having "full quota" votes plus "remainder" votes if the party puts their candidates in a single list, and a list reaching "full quota" vote is considered a waste. In such elections the behavior of voters is similar that of SNTV elections: voters will avoid a candidate reaching the "full quota", and spread their votes to other candidates that have potential to win. Majority judgment See also: Majority judgment § Satisfied and failed criteria In majority judgment, strategy is typically "semi-honest exaggeration." Voters exaggerate the difference between a certain pair of candidates but do not rank any less-preferred candidate over any more-preferred one. Even this form of exaggeration can only have an effect if the voter's honest rating for the intended winner is below that candidate's median rating or their honest rating for the intended loser is above it. Typically, this would not be the case unless there were two similar candidates favored by the same set of voters. A strategic vote against a similar rival could result in a favored candidate winning; although if voters for both similar rivals used this strategy, it could cause a candidate favored by neither of these voter groups to win. Balinski and Laraki argue that since under Majority judgment, many voters have no opportunity to use strategy, in a test using simulated elections based on polling data, this method is the most strategy-resistant of the ones that the authors studied.[22] Approval voting See also: Approval voting § Strategic voting Similarly, in approval voting, unlike many other methods, strategy almost never involves ranking a less-preferred candidate over a more-preferred one.[23] However, strategy is in fact inevitable when a voter decides their "approval cutoff"; this is a variation of the compromising strategy. Overall, Steven Brams and Dudley R. Herschbach argued in a paper in Science magazine in 2001 that approval voting was the method least amenable to tactical perturbations. Meanwhile, Balinski and Laraki used rated ballots from a poll of the 2007 French presidential election to show that, if unstrategic voters only approved candidates whom they considered "very good" or better, strategic voters would be able to sway the result frequently, but that if unstrategic voters approved all candidates they considered "good" or better, approval was the second most strategy-resistant method of the ones they studied.[18] Approval voting forces voters to face an initial voting tactical decision as to whether to vote for (or approve) of their second-choice candidate or not. The voter may want to retain expression of preference of their favorite candidate over their second choice. But that does not allow the same voter to express preference of their second choice over any other. One simple situation in which Approval strategy is important is if there is a close election between two similar candidates A and B and one distinct one Z, in